Wildfire-smoke-precipitation interactions in Siberia: Insights from a regional model study.

ABSTRACT

Powerful wildfires occurring in Siberia each summer emit large amounts of smoke aerosol that, according to studies of the environmental impacts of biomass burning (BB) aerosol in different regions of the world, can affect precipitation and other weather parameters and induce feedback on fires. However, the knowledge of smoke-weather interactions and fire-weather feedback in Siberia is presently limited. To advance this knowledge, we performed coupled-meteorology-chemistry simulations of aerosols and weather in a Siberian region covering taiga and tundra using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model and the WRF meteorological model. We addressed a monthly period of July 2016 and considered several modeling scenarios in which aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) were taken into account jointly or separately. The simulation results were combined with emission and precipitation data retrieved from satellite observations. The joint analysis of the simulated precipitation fields and satellite-observation-based data revealed that in the taiga, the inhibiting effect of Siberian smoke on precipitation induced a significant positive feedback on BB aerosol emissions that, according to our estimates, enhanced by 27 (±7) % respective to a hypothetical situation in which smoke-weather interactions were absent. At the same time, an increase of precipitation over active fire spots due to ACI and ARI in tundra led to the formation of a negative feedback loop between fire emissions and BB smoke, resulting in a reduction of BB aerosol emissions there by 14 (±6) %. Hence, this study revealed evidence for significant feedback of smoke-induced precipitation changes on fire emissions in Siberia. Given the global importance of Siberia as a major carbon sink, this feedback needs to be studied further and accurately taken into account in projections of climate change both on regional and global scales.