Rare events model of the MBSAQIP database: risk of early bowel obstruction following metabolic surgery.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early small bowel obstruction (eSBO) (within 30-days) is a rare but important complication that is associated with high rates of morbidity, including readmission, reintervention, and reoperation. OBJECTIVES: To identify patient-specific and operation-specific characteristics that predispose patients to eSBO and to identify at-risk individuals preoperatively. SETTING: 2015-2021 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP). METHODS: Utilizing the 2015-2021 MBSAQIP PUF, 1,016,484 records were analyzed. Pediatric, revisional, open-conversion, and cases with incomplete data in sex, body mass index, operative-time, 30-day-follow-up variables were excluded. Case details were compared using Fisher's exact & Wilcoxon -Mann -Whitney tests to identify at-risk patients. The likelihood of eSBO was modeled with rare event logistic regression. RESULTS: Incidence of eSBO was .40%. Of the 4103 occurrences of eSBO, RYGB (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass), SG (sleeve gastrectomy), and DS (duodenal switch) accounted for 79.4%, 19.3%, and 1.3%, respectively. Many patient-specific characteristics were significantly associated with eSBO. History of prior foregut surgery, a non-metabolic surgery trained operator, and longer operative times were all associated with increased eSBO (P < .0001). While simultaneously controlling for these factors, eSBO remained higher in DS (OR 9.55, P < .0001) and RYGB (OR 5.18, P < .0001) compared to SG. Increased length of operation (OR 1.03, P < .0001) and non -MS-trained operators (OR 1.33, P < .0001) remained highly significant. Male-sex (OR .70, P < .0001) and diabetes (OR .78, P < .0001) were both protective. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest analysis to date, eSBO remains a rare event. RYGB accounts for the largest proportion of eSBO, however, DS has a higher risk adjusted rate of eSBO.