Predictive pharmacodynamic performance of the Eleveld pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for propofol: comparison of predicted and measured bispectral index.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Eleveld pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for propofol predicts bispectral index (BIS) processed electroencephalogram values from estimated effect-site concentrations. We investigated agreement between measured and predicted BIS values during total intravenous anaesthesia (TIVA). METHODS: Forty participants undergoing lower limb surgery received TIVA using remifentanil target-controlled infusions and propofol by manually controlled, target-guided infusions based upon the Eleveld model and directed by two pharmacokinetic computer simulation applications PKPD Tools and StelSim. We evaluated the predictive performance of the Eleveld model by calculating median prediction errors (BIS units) and by Bland-Altman analyses. We also performed |Bland-Altman analysis of supplementary data provided by the authors of the Eleveld model. RESULTS: Whereas median prediction errors were small (MDPE -1.9, MDAPE 10), the ranges were wide (-18.5 to 24.3 and 1.7 to 24.3). The proportion of MDAPE >10 BIS units was 47.8%. Bland-Altman analysis showed a small mean bias (-0.52 BIS units) with wide limits of agreement (-27.7 to 26.2). Each participant's limits of agreement did not meet the requirements for declaring interchangeability between the two measurements. The measurement differences depended on the BIS values, as indicated by the positive slopes of the differences vs BIS values. Bland-Altman analysis of the Eleveld model supplementary data revealed similar results. CONCLUSION: BIS predictions by the Eleveld model should be interpreted with caution. In spite of the acceptable MDPE and MDAPE, there are unacceptable degrees of both within-subject and between-subject variation during propofol target-controlled infusions. This limits the use of adjusting targeted concentrations to achieve desired simulated BIS values with confidence.