Water quality constrained adjustment planning for regional breeding management with nonlinear programming model under uncertainty in Wenchang City, China.

ABSTRACT

Basin water pollution caused by livestock, poultry and fish breeding is still a serious problem for remote villages, however, reliable regional breeding management programming have the potentials to improve pollution status. This paper focuses on the optimal model design and water quality analysis of the livestock, poultry and fish breeding system for Wenchang City, China. Methods of multi-objective programming (MOP), interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy-stochastic parameter programming (FSPP), and chance constrained programming (CCP) were incorporated into the developed model to tackle multi uncertainties described by interval values, probability distributions, fuzzy membership function. Based on the estimation of local breeding potential and current situation of surface water section, a multi-objective mixed fuzzy-stochastic nonlinear programming optimization model is presented with one-dimensional water quality model. In order to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity of livestock, poultry and fishery manure, predict its development trend and investigate the implementation effect of different emission reduction policies, this paper designs quantization system of the urban water environmental carrying capacity for the model. The results indicated that the water environment pollutant absorption capacity and carrying capacity of Wenchang city have approached the limit especially the towns in the northeast of City which limited the overall development space of the City. The modeling results are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the existing livestock, poultry and fish breeding schemes within a complicated system benefit and surface water quality situation under uncertainty.