Is the Parsonnet's score a good predictive score of mortality in adult cardiac surgery: assessment by a French multicentre study.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg
; 11(3): 406-14, 1997 Mar.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-9105801
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
Parsonnet proposed a preoperative score ("initial Parsonnet's score", which predicts the hospital mortality of adult cardiac surgery. This score was then modified by including several risk factors used in the 'SUMMIT' system ("modified Parsonnet's score", 44 variables). We wanted to assess the predictive value of these two scores in a French surgical population.METHODS:
From December 1992 to April 1993, in France, we organised a prospective multicentre study on adult cardiac surgery mortality and morbidity. Data on 6649 patients were included. We analysed statistically the predictive value of each risk factor and of the two scores on mortality and morbidity at one month.RESULTS:
Only 6 of the 15 variables of the initial Parsonnet's score and 19 of the 44 variables of the modified Parsonnet's score significantly influence hospital mortality. Both scores are able to predict hospital mortality and severe morbidity, but the modified Parsonnet's score has the best predictive value (initial Parsonnet's score odds ratio by point of score = 1.01, area under the roc curve = 0.64; modified Parsonnet's score odds ratio by point of score = 1.05, area under the roc curve = 0.70).CONCLUSIONS:
This study shows that the Parsonnet's scores are predictive, but that these scores remain imperfect many risk factors are non significant, the initial Parsonnet's score has a moderate predictive value, and the modified Parsonnet's score is too complex (44 variables). Thus, we have built a new score for cardiac surgery in French adults.
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Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Postoperative Complications
/
Severity of Illness Index
/
Heart Diseases
Type of study:
Clinical_trials
/
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
En
Journal:
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg
Journal subject:
CARDIOLOGIA
Year:
1997
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
France