Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of lung cancer in China in 2008 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To estimate the incidence,mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of lung cancer in China,in 2008.Methods Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) was used to estimate the incidence,mortality and 5-year prevalence rates of lung cancer in China in 2008.Mathematical models were used to predict the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in the next 20 years.Results In 2008,the incidence of lung cancer was 522 050 ( 18.5％ ) with the incidence rate as 33.5/100 000,which ranked the first among all the cancers.Mortality of lung cancer in China was 452 813 (23.1％) with the mortality rate as 28.7/100 000,which also ranked the first among all the cancers.The 5-year prevalence rate of lung cancer in China was 487 815 (10.6％) with the proportion as 45.6/100 000,which ranked fourth among all the cancers.Lung cancer happened more frequently among people older than 45 years,particularly in males.Our data on prediction showed that the incidencc and mortality of lung cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.Conclusion Lung cancer was the leading cause for both incidence and mortality of all canccrs in China and both kept increasing.The key population fell in those older than 45 ycars,particularly males,that should be under special prevention and control for lung cancer.