Risk factors for drug resistance-tuberculosis and establishment of risk predictive model / 重庆医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the risk factors for drug resistance‐tuberculosis(DR‐TB) ,and to establish a clinical risk predictive model .Methods A total of 126 cases of DR‐TB patients and 126 cases of non‐DR‐TB patients treated in our hospital from January 2014 to January 2015 were included in this study .The clinical data of these patients were collected .We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine the independent risk factors and established a risk predictive model .The calibration and discrimination of the model were assessed by the H‐L test and the area under the ROC curve ,respectively .Results Statistical analysis showed that the risk factors included previous treatment ,a duration of first treatment of more than 8 months ,ad‐verse effects of anti‐TB medication ,more than three TB foci in the lung and diabetes mellitus .H‐L statistic(χ2 =8 .760 ,P=0 .363) . The area under the ROC was 0 .826 ,95% CI(0 .766 ,0 .886) .Conclusion Logistic regression model established in the study can pre‐dict the incidence of DR‐TB with high prediction accuracy .