Incidence and prevalence of ischemic heart disease in Italy: estimates from the MIAMOD method.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: When considering large areas, population-based data on coronary events are generally lacking, and such is the case for the national level. While mortality data are currently and exhaustively collected, data regarding the incidence and prevalence are often available only for subgroups of the population. METHODS: The incidence and prevalence of coronary events were estimated using a mathematical method on the basis of official mortality and population data from national statistics and survival data on coronary events from the Area Friuli of the MONICA Project, and forecasted for northern, central and southern Italy. RESULTS: The incidence is described from 1970 to 1994 and projected to the year 2004; prevalence is reported at the years 1990 and 2000. The coronary event incidence has been decreasing since 1977 among men and since 1974, 4 years before the observed mortality decline, among women. The prevalence has continued to increase as a result of three main factors increasing survival, population aging, and incidence trend. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence and prevalence data distributed for northern, central and southern Italy are essential to plan and implement major projects aimed at improving medical care services and to evaluate the impact of public health interventions and of spontaneously changing habits among the population.