What is the lifetime risk of contact with an A&E Department or an Institute of Forensic Medicine following violent victimisation?

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to estimate the age and gender specific incidence rates of first time contact with an A&E Department and/or an Institute of Forensic Medicine due to violent victimisation in a Danish low-risk urban population and, secondly to estimate the corresponding lifetime risk of violence based upon these incidence rates. METHODS: All first time contacts of victims of violence with the A&E Department at Odense University Hospital and/or the Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Southern Denmark 1991-2002 were included. Based on estimated age and gender specific annual incidence rates of first time violence and on the survival rates of the background population, the lifetime risk was estimated assuming calendar time stationarity of incidence and survival rates. RESULTS: The overall annual incidence rate of first time violence was 9.2 [95% CI 9.0-9.4] per 1000 population/year for males and 2.6 [95% CI 2.5-2.7] per 1000 population/year for females. The estimated lifetime risk was 0.440 [95% CI 0.438-0.442] for males and 0.180 [95% CI 0.178-0.181] for females. The highest cumulative risk for both males and females was in the age group 15-24 years, 0.192 [95% CI 0.188-0.195] for males and 0.048 [95% CI 0.046-0.051] for females. CONCLUSION: The current study shows, that even in a country with a relatively low risk of violent victimisation a considerable part of the population over a lifetime will need medical assistance after violent victimisation.