[Estimation on the level of birth and death rates of population in the three gorges area by means of capture-mark-recapture method].

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate quality of surveillance and emendate rates of birth and death of population of the Three Gorges area. METHODS: Data on the two samples collected were designed based on principle of capture-recapture method. An investigation of missing report of birth and death was conducted in 7061 families selected through stratified random sampling method. We collected and registered the data of birth and death in every family investigated and checked with correlative records reported in disease surveillance system of the Three Gorges area. The missing report rates and the 95% confidence intervals of birth rate and death rate were calculated. RESULTS: The underreporting rates of birth and death were 13.91% and 15.60% and death of infant was 33.33%. The emended birth rate was 8.92 per thousandth and the 95% confidence interval of birth rate was 8.38 per thousandth-9.45 per thousandth. The emended report rate of death was 6.88 per thousandth and the collectivity 95% confidence interval was 6.37%-7.38 per thousandth. CONCLUSION: Results showed that the quality of birth and death in the disease surveillance reporting system of Three Gorges area was competent to the quality level of the standard set for national disease surveillance system. The birth and death rates of population in the Three Gorges area were under 10.00 per thousandth.