Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices--a water quality case study.
Water Sci Technol
; 56(6): 1-9, 2007.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-17898438
ABSTRACT
Uncertainty analysis for large-scale model studies is a challenging activity that requires a different approach to uncertainty analysis at a smaller scale. However, in river basin studies, the practice of uncertainty analysis at a large scale is mostly derived from practice at a small scale. The limitations and inherent subjectivity of some current practices and assumptions are identified, based on the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis exploring the effects of input data and parameter uncertainty on surface water nutrient concentration. We show that (i) although the results from small- scale sensitivity analysis are often applied at larger scales, this is not always valid; (ii) the current restriction of the uncertainty assessment to uncertainty types with a strong evidence base gives structurally conservative estimates; (iii) uncertainty due to bias is usually not assessed, but it may easily outweigh the effects of variability; (iv) the uncertainty bandwidth may increase for higher aggregation levels, although the opposite is the standard assumption.
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Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Agua Dulce
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Water Sci Technol
Asunto de la revista:
SAUDE AMBIENTAL
/
TOXICOLOGIA
Año:
2007
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Países Bajos