The probability of HIV infection in a new host and its reduction with microbicides.
Math Biosci
; 214(1-2): 81-6, 2008.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-18445499
ABSTRACT
We use a simple mathematical model to estimate the probability and its time dependence that one or more HIV virions successfully infect target cells. For the transfer of a given number of virions to target cells we derive expressions for the probability P(inf), of infection. Thus, in the case of needlestick transfer we determine P(inf) and an approximate time window for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). For heterosexual transmission, where the transfer process is more complicated, a parameter gamma is employed which measures the strength of the infection process. For the smaller value of gamma, P(inf) is from 6 x 10(-5) to 0.93 or from 7.82 x 10(-6) to 0.29, where the lower figures are for the transfer of 100 virions and the upper figures are for the transfer of 4.4 million virions. We estimate the reductions in P(inf) which occur with a microbicide of a given efficacy. It is found that reductions may be approximately as stated when the number of virions transferred is less than about 10(5), but declines to zero for viral loads above that number. It is concluded that PEP should always be applied immediately after a needlestick incident. Further, manufacturers of microbicides should be encouraged to investigate and report their effectiveness at various transferred viral burdens.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Infecciones por VIH
/
Antiinfecciosos
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Math Biosci
Año:
2008
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Alemania
Pais de publicación:
EEUU
/
ESTADOS UNIDOS
/
ESTADOS UNIDOS DA AMERICA
/
EUA
/
UNITED STATES
/
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
/
US
/
USA