[Relationship between climate change and determinant factors of mortality among the elderly in the municipality of São Carlos (São Paulo, Brazil) over a period of ten years]. / Relação entre alterações climáticas e fatores determinantes da mortalidade de idosos no município de São Carlos (SP) em um período de dez anos.

The aim of this study was to identify the correlation between the number of deaths of elderly people and climate change in the district of São Carlos (SP) over a period of 10 years (1997-2006). Records of deaths were obtained from DATASUS for people aged over 60 who died between 1997 and 2006 in São Carlos. The average monthly maximum and minimum temperature data and relative air humidity in São Carlos were provided by the National Institute of Meteorology. The mortality coefficient of the district was calculated by gender and age and the resulting data were analyzed using t test, one-way ANOVA, the Bonferroni test and the Pearson correlation coefficient test. There were 8,304 deaths which predominantly occurred among males aged over 80, and diseases of the circulatory system were the main cause of death. There was a positive correlation between mortality by infectious disease and minimum humidity, and a negative correlation between mortality by infectious diseases and minimum temperatures, between mortality caused by respiratory disease and minimum humidity, between mortality caused by endocrine disease and minimum and maximum temperature. Thereby, it was possible to conclude that there was a correlation between climate change and mortality among elderly individuals in São Carlos.