Prediction risk chart for scleroderma digital ulcers: a composite predictive model based on capillaroscopic, demographic and clinico-serological parameters.
Clin Hemorheol Microcirc
; 59(2): 133-43, 2015.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-24464851
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Digital ulcers (DU) affect 50% of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients, representing a challenging clinical problem. Despite a high negative predictive value, capillaroscopic scores proposed to select patients at risk for DU show an inadequate positive predictive value, especially in patients without previous DU. AIM OF THIS STUDY To increase the predictive value for DU development of capillaroscopy, through a predictive risk chart taking into account capillaroscopic, demographic, and clinico-serological parameters. PATIENTS ANDMETHODS:
Two hundred and nineteen unselected SSc patients from 8 Italian Rheumatology Centers were consecutively enrolled during a 6-month period. Demographic, clinical, serological and instrumental data and capillaroscopy skin ulcers risk index (CSURI) were collected.RESULTS:
A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a significant positive association between DU appearance and male gender, DU history, altered CSURI, and ESR. A prediction risk chart of the development of DU within 6 months were built on the basis of the above parameters. According to the risk level, four risk classes were identified low (≤19.3%); medium (>19.3%, ≤58.6%); high (>58.6%, ≤89.2%), and very high risk (>89.2%).CONCLUSIONS:
The systematic evaluation of the above parameters can be helpful to identify patients at risk to develop DU optimizing preventive vasoactive therapy.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Esclerodermia Sistémica
/
Angioscopía Microscópica
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clin Hemorheol Microcirc
Asunto de la revista:
ANGIOLOGIA
/
HEMATOLOGIA
Año:
2015
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Italia
Pais de publicación:
HOLANDA
/
HOLLAND
/
NETHERLANDS
/
NL
/
PAISES BAJOS
/
THE NETHERLANDS