Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: the Ddal modelling framework.
Infect Genet Evol
; 27: 509-20, 2014 Oct.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-24480053
ABSTRACT
Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Ecosistema
/
Agricultura
/
Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Infect Genet Evol
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
GENETICA
Año:
2014
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
HOLANDA
/
HOLLAND
/
NETHERLANDS
/
NL
/
PAISES BAJOS
/
THE NETHERLANDS