Can changes in population mixing and socio-economic deprivation in Cumbria, England explain changes in cancer incidence around Sellafield?

ABSTRACT

Previously excesses in incident cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma have been observed amongst young people born or resident in Seascale, Cumbria. These excesses have not been seen more recently. It is postulated that the former apparent increased risk was related to 'unusual population mixing', which is not present in recent years. This study investigated changes in measures of population mixing from 1951-2001. Comparisons were made between three specified areas. Area-based measures were calculated (migration, commuting, deprivation, population density). All areas have become more affluent, although Seascale was consistently the most affluent. Seascale has become less densely populated, with less migration into the ward and less diversity with respect to migrants' origin. There have been marked changes in patterns of population mixing throughout Cumbria. Lesser population mixing has been observed in Seascale in recent decades. Changes in pattern and nature of population mixing may explain the lack of recent excesses.