A primer on stable parameter estimation and forecasting in epidemiology by a problem-oriented regularized least squares algorithm.

ABSTRACT

Public health officials are increasingly recognizing the need to develop disease-forecasting systems to respond to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. For instance, simple epidemic models relying on a small number of parameters can play an important role in characterizing epidemic growth and generating short-term epidemic forecasts. In the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms of emerging infectious diseases, phenomenological models are useful to characterize epidemic growth patterns without the need to explicitly model transmission mechanisms and the natural history of the disease. In this article, our goal is to discuss and illustrate the role of regularization methods for estimating parameters and generating disease forecasts using the generalized Richards model in the context of the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.