Time trends in incidence and mortality of cutaneous melanoma in Germany.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To characterize incidence and mortality trends of cutaneous melanoma (CM) in Germany to extrapolate these data until 2030. METHODS: We evaluated data from the Centre for Cancer Registry Data (1999-2012) and from the Saarland Cancer Registry (1970-2012). Age-standardized (according to the European Standard Population, WHO 1976) incidence and mortality rates [age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs)] and crude incidence and mortality rates [crude incidence rates (CIRs) and crude mortality rates (CMRs)] were analysed. RESULTS: In entire Germany, ASIRs increased by 55% to 19.2 and CIRs by 77% to 26.0 new cases per 100 000 from 1999 to 2012. ASMRs remained stable, whereas CMR increased by 58% to 4.1 for males and by 30% to 3.0 for females per 100 000. In the Federal State of Saarland, ASIRs increased more than four-fold to 13.1, CIRs increased six-seven fold to 18.5/100 000 from 1970 to 2012. In the same period, ASMRs increased three-fold in males and two-fold in females to 2.5 and 1.6, whereas CMRs increased 5.5-fold in males and 3.5-fold in females to 3.9 and 3.2/100 000, mainly caused by steep increases of CIRs and CMRs in age groups ≥60 years. Projected CIRs will rise to 44-46 for males and 38-40 for females in 2030. Steepest increases were extrapolated for patients ≥60 years, especially for males, but are also expected for age groups of 40-59 years. In contrast, CIRs are anticipated to stabilize for subjects <40 years. CONCLUSIONS: There is a constant increase in incidence and mortality rates for CM in Germany. As the German population is ageing and the current population has already accumulated high levels of UV exposure, a further increase in melanoma incidence is projected for the future without signs of levelling-off.