Nomogram for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula.
HPB (Oxford)
; 21(11): 1436-1445, 2019 11.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30982739
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Previous studies analyzed risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and developed risk prediction tool using scoring system. However, no study has built a nomogram based on individual risk factors. This study aimed to evaluate individual risks of POPF and propose a nomogram for predicting POPF.METHODS:
From 2007 to 2016, medical records of 1771 patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenctomy were reviewed retrospectively. Variables with p < 0.05 in multivariate logistic regression analysis were included in the nomogram. Internal performance validation was executed using a repeated cross validation method.RESULTS:
Of 1771 patients, 222 (12.5%) experienced POPF. In multivariable analysis, sex (p = 0.004), body mass index (BMI) (p < 0.001), ASA score (p = 0.039), preoperative albumin (p = 0.035), pancreatic duct diameter (p = 0.002), and location of tumor (p < 0.001) were identified as independent predictors for POPF. Based on these six variables, a POPF nomogram was developed. The area under the curve (AUC) estimated from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) graph was 0.709 in the train set and 0.652 in the test set.CONCLUSIONS:
A POPF nomogram was developed. This nomogram may be useful for selecting patients who need more intensified therapy and establishing customized treatment strategy.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Complicaciones Posoperatorias
/
Fístula Pancreática
/
Pancreaticoduodenectomía
/
Nomogramas
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
HPB (Oxford)
Asunto de la revista:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Corea del Sur