Computing human to human Avian influenza â0 via transmission chains and parameter estimation.
Math Biosci Eng
; 16(5): 3465-3487, 2019 04 19.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31499624
ABSTRACT
The transmission of avian influenza between humans is extremely rare, and it mostly affects individuals who are in contact with infected family member. Although this scenario is uncommon, there have been multiple outbreaks that occur in small infection clusters in Asia with relatively lowtransmissibility, and thus are too weak to cause an epidemic. Still, subcritical transmission from stut-tering chain data is vital for determining whether avian influenza is close to the threshold of â0 > 1.In this article, we will explore two methods of estimating â0 using transmission chains and parameterestimation through data fitting. We found that â0 = 0.2205 when calculating the â0 using the maxi-mum likelihood method. When we computed the reproduction number for human to human transmis-sion through differential equations and fitted the model to data from the cumulative cases, cumulativedeaths, and cumulative secondary cases, we estimated â0 = 0.1768. To avoid violating the assumptionof the least square method, we fitted the model to incidence data to obtain â0 = 0.1520. We tested thestructural and practical identifiability of the model, and concluded that the model is identifiable undercertain assumptions. We further use two more methods to estimate â0 by the â0 definition whichgives an overestimate of 0.28 and by Ferguson approach which yields â0 = 0.1586. We conclude that â0 for human to human transmission was about 0.2.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Número Básico de Reproducción
/
Gripe Humana
/
Subtipo H7N7 del Virus de la Influenza A
/
Gripe Aviar
Tipo de estudio:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Límite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
/
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Math Biosci Eng
Año:
2019
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos