Radiomics performs comparable to morphologic assessment by expert radiologists for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy on baseline staging MRI in rectal cancer.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To compare the performance of advanced radiomics analysis to morphological assessment by expert radiologists to predict a good or complete response to chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer using baseline staging MRI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively assessed the primary staging MRIs [prior to chemoradiotherapy (CRT)] of 133 rectal cancer patients from 2 centers. First, two expert radiologists subjectively estimated the likelihood of achieving a "complete response" (ypT0) and "good response" (TRG 1-2), using a 5-point score (based on TN-stage, MRF/EMVI-status, size/signal/shape). Next, tumor volumes were segmented on high b value DWI (semi-automated, corrected by 2 non-expert and 2-expert readers, resulting in 5 segmentations), copied to the remaining sequences after which a total of 2505 radiomic features were extracted from T2W, low and high b value DWI and ADC. Stability of features for noise due to inter-reader and inter-scanner and protocol variations was assessed using intraclass correlation (ICC) and the Kruskal-Wallis test. Using data from center 1 (n = 86; training set), top 9 features were selected using minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance and combined in a logistic regression model. Finally, diagnostic performance of the fitted models was assessed on data from center 2 (n = 47; validation set) and compared to the performance of the radiologists. RESULTS: The Radiomic models resulted in AUCs of 0.69-0.79 (with similar results for the segmentations performed by expert/non-expert readers) to predict response, results similar to the morphologic prediction by the expert radiologists (AUC 0.67-0.83). Radiomics using semi-automatically generated segmentations (without manual input) did not result in significant predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics could predict response to therapy with comparable diagnostic performance as expert radiologists, regardless of whether image segmentation was performed by non-expert or expert readers, indicating that expert input is not required in order for the radiomics workflow to produce significant predictive performance.