[Principles of dynamics model and its application in forecasting the epidemics and evaluation the efforts of prevention and control interventions].
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi
; 54(6): 602-607, 2020 Jun 06.
Article
en Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32842277
ABSTRACT
During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluating the efforts of prevention and control strategies.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Epidemias
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Zh
Revista:
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China