Tear Proteomic Predictive Biomarker Model for Ocular Graft Versus Host Disease Classification.

Purpose: Diagnosis of ocular graft-versus-host disease (oGVHD) is hampered by a lack of clinically-validated biomarkers. This study aims to predict disease severity on the basis of tear protein expression in mild oGVHD. Methods: Forty-nine patients with and without chronic oGVHD after AHCT were recruited to a cross-sectional observational study. Patients were stratified using NIH guidelines for oGVHD severity: NIH 0 (none; n = 14), NIH 1 (mild; n = 9), NIH 2 (moderate; n = 16), and NIH 3 (severe; n = 10). The proteomic profile of tears was analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Random forest and penalized logistic regression were used to generate classification and prediction models to stratify patients according to disease severity. Results: Mass spectrometry detected 785 proteins across all samples. A random forest model used to classify patients by disease grade achieved F1-measure values for correct classification of 0.95 (NIH 0), 0.8 (NIH 1), 0.74 (NIH 2), and 0.83 (NIH 3). A penalized logistic regression model was generated by comparing patients without oGVHD and those with mild oGVHD and applied to identify potential biomarkers present early in disease. A panel of 13 discriminant markers achieved significant diagnostic accuracy in identifying patients with moderate-to-severe disease. Conclusions: Our work demonstrates the utility of tear protein biomarkers in classifying oGVHD severity and adds further evidence indicating ocular surface inflammation as a main driver of oGVHD clinical phenotype. Translational Relevance: Expression levels of a 13-marker tear protein panel in AHCT patients with mild oGVHD may predict development of more severe oGVHD clinical phenotypes.