Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 26(11): e1-e14, 2020 11.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32917290
ABSTRACT
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neumonía Viral
/
Modelos Estadísticos
/
Infecciones por Coronavirus
/
Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Emerg Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article