The burden of hand, foot, and mouth disease among children under different vaccination scenarios in China: a dynamic modelling study.
BMC Infect Dis
; 21(1): 650, 2021 Jul 05.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34225650
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in young children. A monovalent vaccine has been developed in China protecting against enterovirus-71, bivalent vaccines preventing HFMD caused by two viruses are under development.OBJECTIVE:
To predict and compare the incidence of HFMD under different vaccination scenarios in China.METHODS:
We developed a compartmental model to capture enterovirus transmission and the natural history of HFMD in children aged 0-5, and calibrated to reported cases in the same age-group from 2015 to 2018. We compared the following vaccination scenarios different combinations of monovalent and bivalent vaccine; a program of constant vaccination to that of pulse vaccination prior to seasonal outbreaks.RESULTS:
We estimate 1,982,819, 2,258,846, 1,948,522 and 2,398,566 cases from 2015 to 2018. Increased coverage of monovalent vaccine from 0 to 80% is predicted to decrease the cases by 797,262 (49.1%). Use of bivalent vaccine at an 80% coverage level would decrease the cases by 828,560. Use of a 2.0× pulse vaccination for the bivalent vaccine in addition to 80% coverage would reduce cases by over one million. The estimated R0 for HFMD in 2015-2018 was 1.08, 1.10, 1.35 and 1.17.CONCLUSIONS:
Our results point to the benefit of bivalent vaccine and using a pulse vaccination in specific months over routine vaccination. Other ways to control HFMD include isolation of patients in the early stage of dissemination, more frequent hand-washing and ventilation, and better treatment options for patients.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Vacunas Virales
/
Vacunación
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Enterovirus
/
Enfermedad de Boca, Mano y Pie
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Child, preschool
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Female
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Humans
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Infant
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Male
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Newborn
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Infect Dis
Asunto de la revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
China
Pais de publicación:
ENGLAND
/
ESCOCIA
/
GB
/
GREAT BRITAIN
/
INGLATERRA
/
REINO UNIDO
/
SCOTLAND
/
UK
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UNITED KINGDOM