Increased Serum Levels of soluble ST2 as a Predictor of Disease Progression in Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Interleukin-33 (IL-33) has been investigated as a mediator in the pathogenesis of fibrosis in lung, liver, and heart. There is accumulating evidence for the involvement of the IL-33/IL-33 receptor ST2L signalling pathway in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Little is known about the role of serum sST2 in SSc, which is the subject of the present investigation. METHOD: Serum levels of sST2 were measured in 49 patients with SSc, recruited prospectively between November 2017 and March 2019. Patients were divided into those with progressive and those with stable disease. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was applied to study sST2 as a marker for identifying patients with progressive disease. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to evaluate the predictive value of sST2 for progressive disease after adjustment for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Serum sST2 levels in patients with progressive disease were significantly elevated compared with patients with stable disease (mean ± sem: 50.4 ± 4.7 ng/mL vs 29.2 ± 2.97 ng/mL, p < 0.001). ROC curve analysis identified an sST2 cut-off value of 37.8 ng/mL as optimal for discriminating patients with progressive disease from those with stable disease (sensitivity 80.0%, specificity 79.3%, area under the curve 0.80). After controlling for potential confounding factors (age, gender, C-reactive protein, pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and sum of internal medicine comorbidities), sST2 remained predictive of progressive disease (odds ratio 1.070, 95% confidence interval 1.017-1.126, p < 0.009). CONCLUSION: In the present study, sST2 serum levels were predictive of disease progression in patients with SSc.