Development and validation of a clinical model (DREAM-LDL) for post-stroke cognitive impairment at 6 months.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: This multicenter, retrospective study assessed the prevalence of post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) 6 months after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and its risk factors to build a bedside early predictive model for PSCI using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). METHODS: Records of consecutive patients with AIS treated at 4 stroke centers in Shanghai had MoCA assessments within 2 weeks after AIS onset and 6 months later were reviewed. Prevalence of PSCI (MoCA<22) was calculated and risk factors were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The modeling and validation and identified risk factors were included in a predictive model using multivariate regression. RESULTS: There were 383 patients included and prevalence of PSCI 6 months after AIS was 34.2%, significantly lower than prevalence of patients with acute cognitive impairment (49.6%). Aging, less education, higher glucose level and severe stroke were PSCI risk factors, while level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) had a paradox effect on the risk of PSCI. 40.0% of the patients with cognitive impairment at acute phase reverted to normal, and patients with LDL-C 1.8-2.5 mmol/L were more likely to revert. The predictive model we built, DREAM-LDL (Diabetes [fasting blood glucose level], Rating [NIHSS], level of Education, Age, baseline MoCA and LDL-C level), had an AUROC of 0.93 for predicting PSCI at 6 months. CONCLUSION: PSCI was common among AIS patients 6 months after AIS. We provided a practical tool to predict PSCI based on MoCA and risk factors present during acute phase of AIS.