Climate change, riverine flood risk and adaptation for the conterminous United States.

ABSTRACT

Riverine floods are among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and floods are generally projected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. Faced with these increasing risks, improved information is needed to direct limited resources toward the most cost-effective adaptation actions available. Here we leverage a newly available flood risk dataset for residential properties in the conterminous United States to calculate expected annual damages to residential structures from inland/riverine flooding at a property-level; the cost of property-level adaptations to protect against future flood risk; and the benefits of those adaptation investments assuming both static and changing climate conditions. Our modeling projects that in the absence of adaptation, nationwide damages from riverine flooding will increase by 20-30% under high levels of warming. Floodproofing, elevation and property acquisition can each be cost-effective adaptations in certain situations, depending on the desired return on investment (i.e., benefit cost ratio), the discount rate, and the assumed rate of climate change. Incorporation of climate change into the benefit-cost calculation increases the number of properties meeting any specified benefit-cost threshold, as today's investments protect against an increasing frequency of future floods. However, because future expected damages are discounted relative to present-day, the adaptation decisions made based on a static climate assumption are very similar to the decisions made when climate change is considered. If the goal is to optimize adaptation decision making, a focus on quantifying present-day flood risk is therefore at least as important as understanding how those risks might change under a warming climate.