A Dynamic Nomogram for 3-Month Prognosis for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients After Endovascular Therapy: A Pooled Analysis in Southern China.

ABSTRACT

Cerebral edema (CDE) is a common complication in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and can reduce the benefit of endovascular therapy (EVT). To determine whether certain risk factors are associated with a poor prognosis mediated by CDE after EVT. The 759 patients with anterior circulation stroke treated by EVT at three comprehensive stroke centers in China from January 2014 to October 2020 were analyzed. Patients underwent follow-up for 3 months after inclusion. The primary endpoint was a measure of a poor prognosis (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3) at 3 months assessed in all patients receiving EVT. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariate logistic regression were used to select variables for the prognostic nomogram. Based on these variables, the nomogram was established and validated. In addition, structural equation modeling was used to explore the pathways linking CDE and a poor prognosis. Seven predictors were identified, namely, diabetes, age, baseline Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score, modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction score, early angiogenic CDE, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and collateral circulation. The nomogram consisting of these variables showed the best performance, with a large area under the curve in both the internal validation set (0.850; sensitivity, 0.737; specificity, 0.887) and external validation set (0.875; sensitivity, 0.752; specificity, 0.878). In addition, CDE (total path coefficient = 0.24, P < 0.001) served as a significant moderator. A nomogram for predicting a poor prognosis after EVT in AIS patients was established and validated with CDE as a moderator.