A Machine Learning Model Based on Tumor and Immune Biomarkers to Predict Undetectable MRD and Survival Outcomes in Multiple Myeloma.
Clin Cancer Res
; 28(12): 2598-2609, 2022 06 13.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35063966
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
Undetectable measurable residual disease (MRD) is a surrogate of prolonged survival in multiple myeloma. Thus, treatment individualization based on the probability of a patient achieving undetectable MRD with a singular regimen could represent a new concept toward personalized treatment, with fast assessment of its success. This has never been investigated; therefore, we sought to define a machine learning model to predict undetectable MRD at the onset of multiple myeloma. EXPERIMENTALDESIGN:
This study included 487 newly diagnosed patients with multiple myeloma. The training (n = 152) and internal validation cohorts (n = 149) consisted of 301 transplant-eligible patients with active multiple myeloma enrolled in the GEM2012MENOS65 trial. Two external validation cohorts were defined by 76 high-risk transplant-eligible patients with smoldering multiple myeloma enrolled in the Grupo Español de Mieloma(GEM)-CESAR trial, and 110 transplant-ineligible elderly patients enrolled in the GEM-CLARIDEX trial.RESULTS:
The most effective model to predict MRD status resulted from integrating cytogenetic [t(4;14) and/or del(17p13)], tumor burden (bone marrow plasma cell clonality and circulating tumor cells), and immune-related biomarkers. Accurate predictions of MRD outcomes were achieved in 71% of cases in the GEM2012MENOS65 trial (n = 214/301) and 72% in the external validation cohorts (n = 134/186). The model also predicted sustained MRD negativity from consolidation onto 2 years maintenance (GEM2014MAIN). High-confidence prediction of undetectable MRD at diagnosis identified a subgroup of patients with active multiple myeloma with 80% and 93% progression-free and overall survival rates at 5 years.CONCLUSIONS:
It is possible to accurately predict MRD outcomes using an integrative, weighted model defined by machine learning algorithms. This is a new concept toward individualized treatment in multiple myeloma. See related commentary by Pawlyn and Davies, p. 2482.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Mieloma Múltiple
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Aged
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clin Cancer Res
Asunto de la revista:
NEOPLASIAS
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
España