Estimates of child mortality reductions attributed to vitamin A supplementation in sub-Saharan Africa: scale up, scale back, or refocus?

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) has been implemented in over 82 countries globally, primarily because of its beneficial effect in preventing child mortality. Secular reductions in child mortality and the implementation of alternative programs to promote vitamin A intake have led to questions on the need for national VAS programs. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate child mortality changes related to VAS using current, scale-back, and scale-up coverage scenarios. METHODS: Data related to demographic characteristics, fertility, intervention coverage, anthropometry, child mortality and cause-of-death structure were integrated into the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). We estimated the cause-specific (LiST model) and all-cause mortality reductions related to VAS based on evidence from recent meta-analyses. RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2018, VAS coverage declined in most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. In 2019 alone, 12% and 24% reductions in all-cause mortality related to VAS were expected to avert from 105,332 to 234,704 child deaths, respectively, in SSA; whereas the cause-specific mortality model (LiST) estimated that 141,670 child deaths were averted in 2019. Estimates of VAS-related child mortality reductions were highly variable among countries. Our scaling-back scenario led to highly variable country-level results, with expected increases in mortality rates, from a low of 0.04/1000 live births to as high as 49.3/1000 live births, suggesting that some countries could start considering scaling back, while others need to scale up. CONCLUSIONS: Excess child mortality that would be preventable by VAS has declined, but is still significant in many SSA countries. While scale-up of VAS is needed for most of the countries, scaling back can also be considered in some countries. Policy decisions, however, should be guided by more recent data on food consumption, vitamin A statuses, child health, and vitamin A fortification coverage.