Diverging Trends and Expanding Educational Gaps in Smoking in China.

INTRODUCTION: The male smoking rate in China declined moderately through the 1990s and early 2000s, but the decline has since stagnated. It is unclear why the decline stalled and whether it stalled uniformly across all social strata. Theories that view socioeconomic status as a fundamental cause of health predict that socioeconomic gaps in smoking may widen, but theories emphasizing the cultural context of health behavior cast doubt on the prediction. We investigated changes in the socioeconomic gaps in smoking during recent decades in China. METHODS: We applied growth-curve models to examine inter- and intra-cohort changes in socioeconomic gaps in male smoking in China using data from a national longitudinal survey spanning 25 years. RESULTS: We found diverging trends in smoking in men with different education levels among the post-1980 cohorts; for high-education men, smoking participation consistently declined, but for low-education men, the decline stopped and possibly reversed. The stagnation in the decline in overall smoking rate since 2010 was mostly due to the stalling of the decline of smoking among low-education men in the most recent cohorts. The diverging trends were a continuation of a general trend in expanding educational gaps in smoking that emerged in the cohorts born after 1960. Our analysis also identified widening educational gaps over age within each cohort. CONCLUSION: We identified a long-term widening in educational gaps in smoking in China. An effective way to reduce smoking, social inequality in smoking and possibly health disparities in China is to target the smoking behavior of vulnerable groups.