Combination of Body Mass Index and Fasting Blood Glucose Improved Predictive Value of New-Onset Prediabetes or Diabetes After Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate whether combining body mass index (BMI) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) can refine the predictive value of new-onset prediabetes/diabetes after acute pancreatitis (NODAP). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare differences in the NODAP rate among 492 patients with different BMI or FBG levels, or with the combination of these 2 factors mentioned above. RESULTS: In all, 153 of 492 (31.1%) eligible patients finally developed NODAP. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, BMI (hazard ratio, 2.075; 95% confidence interval, 1.408-3.060; P < 0.001) and FBG (hazard ratio, 2.544; 95% confidence interval, 1.748-3.710; P < 0.001) were important predictors of the incidence of NODAP. Subsequently, we divided 492 eligible patients into 3 groups according to the median BMI and FBG values, and found that the NODAP rate in the high-risk group was significantly higher than that in the medium-risk group ( P = 0.018) or the low-risk group ( P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Body mass index and FBG are independent predictors of NODAP. The combination of BMI and FBG can refine the prediction of NODAP and identify candidates for clinical prevention.