Modelling the current and future potential distribution of the bean bug Riptortus pedestris with increasingly serious damage to soybean.

BACKGROUND: The bean bug, Riptortus pedestris, has received intense attention in recent years because of its involvement in increasing outbreaks of staygreen syndrome in soybean (Glycine max (L.)), often causing almost 100% loss of soybean yield in China. However, for this pest of great economic importance, potential current and future distribution patterns and their underlying driving factors remain unclear. RESULTS: Maxent modelling under climate, elevation and land-use (including the distribution information of G. max) variables showed that the current potential distribution covered a vast geographic range, primarily including most parts of south, South East and east Asia. Under future environmental scenarios, suitable habitat expanded markedly. Areas that would become highly suitable for R. pedestris were primarily located in north-east China and west India. Five bioclimatic (BIO13, BIO08, BIO18, BIO02 and BIO07) and one land-use (C3 annual crops) predictors contributed approximately 95% to the modelling, and analyses of curve responses showed that to a certain extent, R. pedestris preferred relatively high temperature and precipitation. Our results indicate that a high risk of R. pedestris outbreaks is present in parts of Asia, especially in the soybean-growing regions of China, and this risk will continue in the future. CONCLUSION: The predicted distribution pattern and key regulating factors identified herein could provide a vital reference for developing pest management policies and further alleviate the incidence of staygreen syndrome in soybean. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.