The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks. Methods: We extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus. Results: There were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association. Conclusions: The results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus.