Climate- and fire-smart landscape scenarios call for redesigning protection regimes to achieve multiple management goals.

ABSTRACT

Integrated management of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) in heterogeneous landscapes requires considering the potential trade-offs between conflicting objectives. The UNESCO's Biosphere Reserve zoning scheme is a suitable context to address these trade-offs by considering multiple management zones that aim to minimise conflicts between management objectives. Moreover, in Mediterranean ecosystems, management and planning also needs to consider drivers of landscape dynamics such as wildfires and traditional farming and forestry practices that have historically shaped landscapes and the biodiversity they host. In this study, we applied a conservation planning approach to prioritise the allocation of management zones under future landscape and climate scenarios. We tested different landscape management scenarios reflecting the outcomes of climate-smart and fire-smart policies. We projected the expected landscape dynamics and associated changes on the distribution of 207 vertebrate species, 4 ES and fire hazard under each scenario. We used Marxan with Zones to allocate three management zones, replicating the Biosphere Reserves zoning scheme ("Core area", "Buffer zone" and "Transition area") to address the various management objectives within the Biosphere Reserve. Our results show that to promote ES supply and biodiversity conservation, while also minimising fire hazard, the reserve will need to i) Redefine its zoning, especially regarding Core Areas, which need a considerable expansion to help mitigate changes in biodiversity and accommodate ES supply under expected changes in climate and species distribution. ii) Revisit current management policies that will result in encroached landscapes prone to high intensity, uncontrollable wildfires with the potential to heavily damage ecosystems and compromise the supply of ES. Our results support that both climate- and fire-smart policies in the Meseta Ibérica can help develop multifunctional landscapes that help mitigate and adapt to climate change and ensure the best possible maintenance of biodiversity and ES supply under uncertain future climate conditions.