Prognostic value of multi b-value DWI in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential of multi b-value DWI in predicting the prognosis of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). METHODS: From 2015 to 2019, a total of 161 patients with LARC were enrolled and randomly sampled into a training set (n = 113) and validation set (n = 48). Multi b-value DWI (b = 0~1500 s/mm2) scans were postprocessed to generate functional parameters, including apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), Dt, Dp, f, distributed diffusion coefficient (DDC), and α. Histogram features of each functional parameter were submitted into Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and stepwise multivariate COX analysis to generate DWI_score based on the training set. The prognostic model was constructed with functional parameter, DWI_score, and clinicopathologic factors by using univariate and multivariate COX analysis on the training set and verified on the validation set. RESULTS: Multivariate COX analysis revealed that DWI_score was an independent indicator for 5-year progression-free survival (PFS, HR = 5.573, p < 0.001), but not for overall survival (OS, HR = 2.177, p = 0.051). No mean value of functional parameters was correlated with PFS or OS. Prognostic model for 5-year PFS based on DWI_score, TNM-stage, mesorectal fascia (MRF), and extramural venous invasion (EMVI) showed good performance both in the training set (AUC = 0.819) and validation set (AUC = 0.815). CONCLUSIONS: The DWI_score based on histogram features of multi b-value DWI functional parameters was an independent factor for PFS of LARC and the prognostic model with a combination of DWI_score and clinicopathologic factors could indicate the progression risk before treatment. KEY POINTS: • Mean value of functional parameters obtained from multi b-value DWI might not be useful to assess the prognosis of LARC. • The DWI_score based on histogram features of multi b-value DWI functional parameters was an independent prognosis factor for PFS of LARC. • Prognostic model based on DWI_score and clinicopathologic factors could indicate the progression risk of LARC before treatment.