Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity.
Nat Commun
; 13(1): 6848, 2022 11 11.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36369164
ABSTRACT
Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N-65°N, during 1971-2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0-10 cm SSI during August-November, and 0-100 cm during September-April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI's signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0-10 cm than 0-100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Suelo
/
Sequías
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos