Patient-specific forecasting of postradiotherapy prostate-specific antigen kinetics enables early prediction of biochemical relapse.
iScience
; 25(11): 105430, 2022 Nov 18.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36388979
ABSTRACT
The detection of prostate cancer recurrence after external beam radiotherapy relies on the measurement of a sustained rise of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). However, this biochemical relapse may take years to occur, thereby delaying the delivery of a secondary treatment to patients with recurring tumors. To address this issue, we propose to use patient-specific forecasts of PSA dynamics to predict biochemical relapse earlier. Our forecasts are based on a mechanistic model of prostate cancer response to external beam radiotherapy, which is fit to patient-specific PSA data collected during standard posttreatment monitoring. Our results show a remarkable performance of our model in recapitulating the observed changes in PSA and yielding short-term predictions over approximately 1 year (cohort median root mean squared error of 0.10-0.47 ng/mL and 0.13 to 1.39 ng/mL, respectively). Additionally, we identify 3 model-based biomarkers that enable accurate identification of biochemical relapse (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.80) significantly earlier than standard practice (p < 0.01).
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
IScience
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Italia