Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influence Factors of Carbon Emission from Livestock Industry in China.

ABSTRACT

Animal husbandry is an important source of carbon emissions. As a large country, China must measure the carbon emissions from animal husbandry to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics and determine the influencing factors to realize low-carbon animal husbandry and carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the carbon emissions of the livestock industry in each province of China were calculated with the emission coefficient method, considering the temperature change factor. The spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors of livestock industry carbon emissions were analyzed using the kernel density model, the spatial autocorrelation model, and the Tobit model. The results indicated that (1) From 2000 to 2020, carbon emissions from the livestock industry in China experienced four stages rapid rise, rapid decline, slow rise, and fluctuating decline, with an overall downward trend. Carbon emissions in the eastern and central regions showed a downward trend, while carbon emissions in the western regions showed an upward trend. (2) In terms of time, the relative gap in carbon emissions among the provinces narrowed first and then widened; the spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions from livestock farming in China increased, gradually forming the characteristics of "high agglomeration, low agglomeration", and showing a gradually decreasing pattern from northwest to southeast. (3) Nationwide, industrial structure, population, and farmers' income levels have had significantly promoting effects on animal husbandry carbon emissions, and the urbanization and agricultural mechanization levels have had significant inhibitory effects on carbon emissions. Finally, based on the above factors, it can be concluded that recognizing the location conditions, promoting the upgrading of industrial structures, and adopting differentiated strategies will help to promote the reduction in carbon emissions in animal husbandry and achieve its high-quality development.