Demographic resilience may sustain significant coral populations in a 2°C-warmer world.
Glob Chang Biol
; 29(14): 4152-4160, 2023 07.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37097011
ABSTRACT
Projections of coral reefs under climate change have important policy implications, but most analyses have focused on the intensification of climate-related physical stress rather than explicitly modelling how coral populations respond to stressors. Here, we analyse the future of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) under multiple, spatially realistic drivers which allows less impacted sites to facilitate recovery. Under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 CMIP5 climate ensemble, where warming is capped at ~2°C, GBR mean coral cover declined mid-century but approached present-day levels towards 2100. This is considerably more optimistic than most analyses. However, under RCP4.5, mean coral cover declined by >80% by late-century, and reached near zero under RCP ≥6.0. While these models do not allow for adaptation, they significantly extend past studies by revealing demographic resilience of coral populations to low levels of additional warming, though more pessimistic outcomes might be expected under CMIP6. Substantive coral populations under RCP2.6 would facilitate long-term genetic adaptation, adding value to ambitious greenhouse emissions mitigation.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Antozoos
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Glob Chang Biol
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Australia