An independently validated nomogram for individualised estimation of short-term mortality risk among patients with severe traumatic brain injury: a modelling analysis of the CENTER-TBI China Registry Study.

Background: Severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI) is extremely disabling and associated with high mortality. Early detection of patients at risk of short-term (≤14 days after injury) death and provision of timely treatment is critical. This study aimed to establish and independently validate a nomogram to estimate individualised short-term mortality for sTBI based on large-scale data from China. Methods: The data were from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI (CENTER-TBI) China registry (between Dec 22, 2014, and Aug 1, 2017; registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02210221). This analysis included information of eligible patients with diagnosed sTBI from 52 centres (2631 cases). 1808 cases from 36 centres were enrolled in the training group (used to construct the nomogram) and 823 cases from 16 centres were enrolled in the validation group. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of short-term mortality and establish the nomogram. The discrimination of the nomogram was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and concordance indexes (C-index), the calibration was evaluated using calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests (H-L tests). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the net benefit of the model for patients. Findings: In the training group, multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that age (odds ratio [OR] 1.013, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.003-1.022), Glasgow Coma Scale score (OR 33.997, 95% CI 14.657-78.856), Injury Severity Score (OR 1.020, 95% CI 1.009-1.032), abnormal pupil status (OR 1.738, 95% CI 1.178-2.565), midline shift (OR 2.266, 95% CI 1.378-3.727), and pre-hospital intubation (OR 2.059, 95% CI 1.472-2.879) were independent predictors for short-term death in patients with sTBI. A nomogram was built using the logistic regression prediction model. The AUC and C-index were 0.859 (95% CI 0.837-0.880). The calibration curve of the nomogram was close to the ideal reference line, and the H-L test p value was 0.504. DCA curve demonstrated significantly better net benefit with the model. Application of the nomogram in external validation group still showed good discrimination (AUC and C-index were 0.856, 95% CI 0.827-0.886), calibration, and clinical usefulness. Interpretation: A nomogram was developed for predicting the occurrence of short-term (≤14 days after injury) death in patients with sTBI. This can provide clinicians with an effective and accurate tool for the early prediction and timely management of sTBI, as well as support clinical decision-making around the withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy. This nomogram is based on Chinese large-scale data and is especially relevant to low- and middle-income countries. Funding: Shanghai Academic Research Leader (21XD1422400), Shanghai Medical and Health Development Foundation (20224Z0012).