Mortality risk according to smoking trajectories after cancer diagnosis among Korean male cancer survivors: A population-based cohort study.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Previous research on post-diagnosis smoking among cancer survivors mainly relied on smoking status, which may not fully reflect the impact of changes in smoking levels. This study aimed to evaluate mortality risk according to smoking trajectories among Korean male cancer survivors, using a trajectory approach to comprehensively capture smoking patterns. METHODS: The study included 110555 men diagnosed with cancer between 2002 and 2018 from the Korean National Health Information Database. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify post-diagnosis smoking trajectories among pre-diagnosis current smokers (n=45331). Cox hazards models were fitted to evaluate mortality risk according to smoking trajectories for pooled cancers, pooled smoking-related cancers, smoking-unrelated cancers, and gastric, colorectal, liver, and lung cancers. RESULTS: Smoking trajectories included light-smoking quitters, heavy-smoking quitters, consistent moderate smokers, and decreasing heavy smokers. Smoking significantly increased all-cause and cancer mortality risks in cancer patients for pooled cancers, pooled smoking-related cancers, and pooled smoking-unrelated cancers. Compared to non-smokers, all-cause mortality risk for pooled cancers significantly increased according to smoking trajectories(AHR=1.33; 95% CI 1.27-1.40), (AHR=1.39; 95% CI 1.34-1.44), (AHR=1.44; 95% CI 1.34-1.54), and (AHR=1.47; 95% CI 1.36-1.60), respectively. Smoking increased all-cause and cancer mortality risks in gastric and colorectal cancer patients and cancer-specific mortality in lung cancer patients. The significant associations of smoking trajectories with all-cause and cancer mortality risks were primarily observed in 5-year survivors but not in short-term survivors. Among heavy smokers, smoking cessation significantly reduced all-cause mortality risk in the long-term. CONCLUSIONS: The post-diagnosis smoking trajectory independently predicts cancer prognosis among male cancer patients. Proactive cessation support should be strengthened, particularly for those who smoke heavily.