Isovaleric aciduria identified by newborn screening: Strategies to predict disease severity and stratify treatment.

Newborn screening (NBS) allows early identification of individuals with rare disease, such as isovaleric aciduria (IVA). Reliable early prediction of disease severity of positively screened individuals with IVA is needed to guide therapeutic decision, prevent life-threatening neonatal disease manifestation in classic IVA and over-medicalization in attenuated IVA that may remain asymptomatic. We analyzed 84 individuals (median age at last study visit 8.5 years) with confirmed IVA identified by NBS between 1998 and 2018 who participated in the national, observational, multicenter study. Screening results, additional metabolic parameters, genotypes, and clinical phenotypic data were included. Individuals with metabolic decompensation showed a higher median isovalerylcarnitine (C5) concentration in the first NBS sample (10.6 vs. 2.7 µmol/L; p < 0.0001) and initial urinary isovalerylglycine concentration (1750 vs. 180 mmol/mol creatinine; p = 0.0003) than those who remained asymptomatic. C5 was in trend inversely correlated with full IQ (R = -0.255; slope = -0.869; p = 0.0870) and was lower for the "attenuated" variants compared to classic genotypes [median (IQR; range): 2.6 µmol/L (2.1-4.0; 0.7-6.4) versus 10.3 µmol/L (7.4-13.1; 4.3-21.7); N = 73]. In-silico prediction scores (M-CAP, MetaSVM, and MetaLR) correlated highly with isovalerylglycine and ratios of C5 to free carnitine and acetylcarnitine, but not sufficiently with clinical endpoints. The results of the first NBS sample and biochemical confirmatory testing are reliable early predictors of the clinical course of IVA, facilitating case definition (attenuated versus classic IVA). Prediction of attenuated IVA is supported by the genotype. On this basis, a reasonable algorithm has been established for neonates with a positive NBS result for IVA, with the aim of providing the necessary treatment immediately, but whenever possible, adjusting the treatment to the individual severity of the disease.