Preoperative Versus Perioperative Risk Factors for Delayed Pain and Opioid Cessation After Total Joint Arthroplasty: A Prospective Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: The evolution of pre- versus postoperative risk factors remains unknown in the development of persistent postoperative pain and opioid use. We identified preoperative versus comprehensive perioperative models of delayed pain and opioid cessation after total joint arthroplasty including time-varying postoperative changes in emotional distress. We hypothesized that time-varying longitudinal measures of postoperative psychological distress, as well as pre- and postoperative use of opioids would be the most significant risk factors for both outcomes. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 188 patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty at Stanford Hospital completed baseline pain, opioid use, and emotional distress assessments. After surgery, a modified Brief Pain Inventory was assessed daily for 3 months, weekly thereafter up to 6 months, and monthly thereafter up to 1 year. Emotional distress and pain catastrophizing were assessed weekly to 6 months, then monthly thereafter. Stepwise multivariate time-varying Cox regression modeled preoperative variables alone, followed by all perioperative variables (before and after surgery) with time to postoperative opioid and pain cessation. RESULTS: The median time to opioid and pain cessation was 54 and 152 days, respectively. Preoperative total daily oral morphine equivalent use (hazard ratio-HR 0.97; 95% confidence interval-CI 0.96-0.98) was significantly associated with delayed postoperative opioid cessation in the perioperative model. In contrast, time-varying postoperative factors: elevated PROMIS (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System) depression scores (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.98), and higher Pain Catastrophizing Scale scores (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.75-0.97) were independently associated with delayed postoperative pain resolution in the perioperative model. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight preoperative opioid use as a key determinant of delayed postoperative opioid cessation, while postoperative elevations in depressive symptoms and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain after total joint arthroplasty providing the rationale for continued risk stratification before and after surgery to identify patients at highest risk for these distinct outcomes. Interventions targeting these perioperative risk factors may prevent prolonged postoperative pain and opioid use.