A CT-based radiomics nomogram for predicting the progression-free survival in small cell lung cancer: a multicenter cohort study.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To develop a radiomics nomogram based on computed tomography (CT) to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and assess its incremental value to the clinical risk factors for individual PFS estimation. METHODS: 558 patients with pathologically confirmed SCLC were retrospectively recruited from three medical centers. A radiomics signature was generated by using the Pearson correlation analysis, univariate Cox analysis, and multivariate Cox analysis. Association of the radiomics signature with PFS was evaluated. A radiomics nomogram was developed based on the radiomics signature, then its calibration, discrimination, reclassification, and clinical usefulness were evaluated. RESULTS: In total, 6 CT radiomics features were finally selected. The radiomics signature was significantly associated with PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 4.531, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.524-5.825, p < 0.001). Incorporating the radiomics signature into the radiomics nomogram resulted in better performance for the estimation of PFS (concordance index [C-index] 0.799) than with the clinical nomogram (C-index 0.629), as well as high 6 months and 12 months area under the curves of 0.885 and 0.846, respectively. Furthermore, the radiomics nomogram also significantly improved the classification accuracy for PFS outcomes, based on the net reclassification improvement (33.7%, 95% CI 0.216-0.609, p < 0.05) and integrated discrimination improvement (22.7%, 95% CI 0.168-0.278, p < 0.05). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that in terms of clinical usefulness, the radiomics nomogram outperformed the clinical nomogram. CONCLUSION: A CT-based radiomics nomogram exhibited a promising performance for predicting PFS in patients with SCLC, which could provide valuable information for individualized treatment.