New Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for the Development of Alcoholic Cirrhosis Based on Genetic Predisposition and Alcohol History.

Liver cirrhosis development is a multifactorial process resulting from a combination of environmental and genetic factors. The aim of the study was to develop accurate non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic models for alcoholic cirrhosis. Consecutive subjects with at-risk alcohol intake were retrospectively enrolled (110 cirrhotic patients and 411 non-cirrhotics). At enrollment, the data about lifetime drinking history were collected and all patients were tested for Patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) rs738409, Transmembrane 6 Superfamily 2 (TM6SF2) rs58542926, and hydroxysteroid 17-beta dehydrogenase 13 (HSD17B13) rs72613567 variants. In cross-sectional analyses, models for the diagnosis of cirrhosis were developed using multivariate logistic regression. A predictive score for cirrhosis development over 24 years was built by evaluating time-dependent AUC curves. The best diagnostic accuracy was demonstrated by the model, which also includes daily alcohol consumption, duration of hazardous alcohol use, and genetic variants, with AUCs of 0.951 (95% CI 0.925-0.977) and 0.887 (95% CI 0.925-0.977) for cirrhosis and compensated cirrhosis, respectively. The predictive model for future cirrhosis development (AUC of 0.836 95% CI: 0.769-0.904) accounted for age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption and the number of PNPLA3 and HSD17B13 variant alleles. We have developed accurate genetic and alcohol consumption models for the diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis and the prediction of its future risk.