Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia.
Nat Commun
; 14(1): 5439, 2023 09 06.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37673859
ABSTRACT
The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Dengue
/
Aclimatación
Tipo de estudio:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
CIENCIA
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido