Weak to no correlation between quantitative high-resolution computed tomography metrics and lung function change in fibrotic diseases.

Background: Identifying systemic sclerosis (SSc) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients at risk of more rapid forced vital capacity (FVC) decline could improve trial design. The purpose of the present study was to explore the prognostic value of quantitative high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) metrics derived by Imbio lung texture analysis (LTA) tool in predicting FVC slope. Methods: This retrospective study used data from patients who were not treated with investigational drugs with and without background antifibrotic therapies in tocilizumab phase 3 SSc, lebrikizumab phase 2 IPF, and zinpentraxin alfa phase 2 IPF studies conducted from 2015 to 2021. Controlled HRCT axial volumetric multidetector computed tomography scans were evaluated using the Imbio LTA tool. Associations between HRCT metrics and FVC slope were assessed through the Spearman correlation coefficient and adjusted R2 in a linear regression model adjusted by demographics and baseline clinical characteristics. Results: A total of 271 SSc and IPF patients were analysed. Correlation coefficients of highest magnitude were observed in the SSc study between the extent of ground glass, normal volume, quantification of interstitial lung disease, reticular pattern, and FVC slope (-0.25, 0.28, -0.28, and -0.33, respectively), while the correlation coefficients observed in IPF studies were in general <0.2. The incremental prognostic value of the baseline HRCT metrics was marginal after adjusting baseline characteristics and was inconsistent across study arms. Conclusion: Data from the SSc and IPF studies suggested weak to no and inconsistent correlation between quantitative HRCT metrics derived by the Imbio LTA tool and FVC slope in the studied SSc and IPF population.