Dependence-Robust Confidence Intervals for Capture-Recapture Surveys.
J Surv Stat Methodol
; 11(5): 1133-1154, 2023 Nov.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37975066
Capture-recapture (CRC) surveys are used to estimate the size of a population whose members cannot be enumerated directly. CRC surveys have been used to estimate the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, people who use drugs, sex workers, conflict casualties, and trafficking victims. When k-capture samples are obtained, counts of unit captures in subsets of samples are represented naturally by a 2k contingency table in which one element-the number of individuals appearing in none of the samples-remains unobserved. In the absence of additional assumptions, the population size is not identifiable (i.e., point identified). Stringent assumptions about the dependence between samples are often used to achieve point identification. However, real-world CRC surveys often use convenience samples in which the assumed dependence cannot be guaranteed, and population size estimates under these assumptions may lack empirical credibility. In this work, we apply the theory of partial identification to show that weak assumptions or qualitative knowledge about the nature of dependence between samples can be used to characterize a nontrivial confidence set for the true population size. We construct confidence sets under bounds on pairwise capture probabilities using two methods: test inversion bootstrap confidence intervals and profile likelihood confidence intervals. Simulation results demonstrate well-calibrated confidence sets for each method. In an extensive real-world study, we apply the new methodology to the problem of using heterogeneous survey data to estimate the number of people who inject drugs in Brussels, Belgium.
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1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Surv Stat Methodol
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos
Pais de publicación:
Estados Unidos